NFL Week 4 Survivor Pool Picks, Advice, and Strategy (2023)
NFL betting analyst Nick Galaida breaks down Week 4 Survivor Pool strategy, previewing the safest picks of the week as well as possible upsets.
NFL Week 4 Survivor Strategy and Picks
In traditional survivor pools, participants are required to select a winner of one NFL game straight-up each week. In eliminator tournaments, the rules are more challenging – allowing participants to use a team only one time throughout the course of the regular season. In 2023, this means that participants will need to select 18 of the 32 teams to finish the regular season. Consequently, there will be weeks when you will not be able to select an elite roster with a favorable matchup.
Each week in this RotoGrinders article, we will identify one trustworthy favorite and pick one favorite that is on upset alert. During the first nine weeks of last season, four of our teams that were on upset alert lost outright, despite all of those teams being favored by at least one score at the time of writing.
Below, we have our list of red flags to try to avoid when selecting your eliminator team of the week. As a general rule, it is best to avoid six contexts when choosing your team:
1. Intra-division games
2. Primetime games
3. Away teams with poor defenses
4. Non-elite teams playing on a short week
5. Non-elite teams with a rest disadvantage
6. Teams who are playing an opponent off of their bye week
Trust this team in Week 4: Los Angeles Chargers
Week 1 Trust this team: Baltimore Ravens (Result: Won 25-9 against the Houston Texans)
Week 2 Trust this team: Dallas Cowboys (Result: Won 30-10 against the New York Jets)
Week 3 Trust this team: San Francisco 49ers (Result: Won 30-12 against the New York Giants)
Brandon Staley is less trustworthy as a head coach than Antonio Brown was when he said he had a real COVID-19 vaccination card in 2021. However, even Staley is going to have a hard time finding a way to let down Los Angeles Chargers’ fans this weekend against the Las Vegas Raiders – a team that is rapidly spiraling towards the bottom of the NFL standings.
This weekend, the Raiders are unlikely to have their starting quarterback , who is currently in concussion protocol and still has not talked to the media this week. According to Vic Tafur of The Athletic, is expected to start if Garoppolo is unable to suit up. In addition to having a backup quarterback on Sunday, the Raiders are also dealing with offensive line issues. Per NextGen Stats, Josh Jacobs is averaging -0.1 yards per carry before contact, meaning that he is getting hit, on average, before he even gets to the line of scrimmage. Factor in a defense that ranks 29th in EPA/play through three weeks, and it becomes extremely difficult to see a pathway to victory for Las Vegas in this spot, absent a Staley masterclass (in a bad way).
The Chargers have their flaws as well – namely a defense that ranks 28th in EPA/play this fall and a head coach that seemingly can’t help but get in the way on a weekly basis. However, this is, by far, the best matchup of the year to use Los Angeles in survivor leagues. The only other favorable home matchup that the Chargers have at home is a Sunday Night Football game against the Chicago Bears, and anyone who has done this before knows that it is best to avoid primetime contests if possible. There are risks here, but Los Angeles makes sense in this spot, given the context of their schedule and the requirements needed to pick, potentially, 18 different teams in 18 weeks to survive an entire regular season.
Week 4 Survivor Fade: Dallas Cowboys
Week 1 Fade: Kansas City Chiefs (Result: Lost 21-20 against the Detroit Lions)
Week 2 Fade: Buffalo Bills (Result: Won 38-10 against the Las Vegas Raiders)
Week 3 Fade: Philadelphia Eagles (Result: Won 25-11 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
Last week, the Philadelphia Eagles ended up getting back a number of key defensive players by the time kickoff rolled around, which helped them earn a comfortable victory on the road. This week, we have another NFC East team that could be less of a lock that the market is currently implying, pending the health of their offensive line on Sunday.
In Week 3, Dallas was without starting right guard Zack Martin, starting center Tyler Biadasz, and left tackle Tyron Smith. The result was a season-worst six quarterback hurries allowed, and seven pressures allowed overall. played poorly overall, but was especially bad under pressure, completing only 3-of-8 pass attempts for 39 passing yards.
Perhaps more alarming, the vaunted Dallas defense looked anything but intimidating on Sunday. After generating a 55.7% pressure rate in Week 1 and a 46.8% pressure rate in Week 2, the Cowboys had an abysmal 18.0% defensive pressure rate in Week 3. Moreover, according to Michael Gehlken, Dallas did not allow a single rushing attempt of 20-plus yards through the first two games of the season, but they allowed four in a 12-carry span during the first half of their Week 3 matchup against the Arizona Cardinals.
The New England Patriots are not the most talented team in the NFL, but they have a strong defense and are well-coached on both sides of the ball, which makes them a dangerous underdog in this spot if Dallas is once again missing key pieces on the offensive line. Monitor the status of the Cowboys’ offensive linemen throughout the week before making a final determination on this game.
Image Credit: Getty Images
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